May 2026 Logistics Roundup: Asia-Europe Rate Drop, Blank Sailings, EU ICS2, China’s VAT Exemption, and US West Coast Labor

May 2026 has brought a mix of easing and pressure. Asia-Europe spot rates tumbled on Red Sea reopening expectations, carriers announced fresh blank sailings, the EU’s full-scale ICS2 security system took effect, China launched a VAT exemption for cross‑border e‑commerce exports, and US West Coast labor talks stalled. Freight buyers face both opportunities and new compliance hurdles.

1. Asia-Europe Rates Dive on Red Sea Reopening Hopes

What happened
As the Yemen ceasefire held, major carriers began evaluating a return to the Suez route. Strong market expectations triggered a cumulative 18% drop in Asia‑Europe spot rates in the first two weeks of May. Shanghai‑Rotterdam rates fell below $2,500 per TEU.

Impacts

• Shippers are postponing long-term commitments, waiting for lower levels.

• Carriers may increase blank sailings to slow the decline.

Glovoyce advice
Keep monitoring Red Sea announcements. A confirmed reopening could trigger a further 15–20% rate drop. Avoid locking in long contracts at current levels; stay flexible.

2. Carriers Announce New Round of June Blank Sailings

What happened
In response to softening rates, 2M, OCEAN, and other alliances released June void sailing programs. About 8% of Asia‑Europe sailings and 5% of transpacific sailings will be cancelled.

Impacts

• Short-term capacity may tighten on certain weeks.

• Last‑minute spot bookings could face roll‑over risks.

Glovoyce advice
Book high‑priority cargo 2–3 weeks in advance. Work with a forwarder that provides proactive blank‑sailing alerts and alternative routings.

3. EU Import Control System 2 (ICS2) Fully Enforced

What happened
From May 1, ICS2 became mandatory for all modes (sea, air, rail) entering the EU. Carriers and forwarders must submit detailed entry/exit summary declarations, including 6‑digit HS codes, accurate product descriptions, and EORI numbers of consignor/consignee, at least 24 hours before loading.

Impacts

• Incorrect or late filings lead to customs holds or return of goods.

• Data quality and speed are now critical.

Glovoyce advice
Audit your product master data. Ensure every SKU has a correct 6‑digit HS code and a clear, non‑generic description. Partner with a forwarder that offers ICS2 pre‑validation.

4. China VAT Exemption for Cross‑Border E‑commerce Exports

What happened
Effective May 1, China exempts cross‑border e‑commerce retail exports from value‑added tax (VAT) and consumption tax, while streamlining refund procedures. The policy encourages compliant, “sunshine” exports using codes 9610 or 9810.

Impacts

• Lower compliance costs for small and medium sellers.

• Incentive to shift from grey‑channel to formal declaration.

Glovoyce advice
Register your export operations under 9610/9810. Use compliant logistics providers that can handle the required customs filings. Take advantage of the lower tax burden to improve margins.

5. US West Coast Labor Talks Stall

What happened
Negotiations between the ILWU dockworkers’ union and PMA employers stalled in early May over automation, wages, and health benefits. No strike has occurred yet, but industry observers fear potential disruptions in July.

Impacts

• Shippers may divert cargo to East Coast or Canadian ports as a precaution.

• Carriers are adjusting service patterns.

Glovoyce advice
Review your US supply chain redundancy. Consider routing some volume through New York, Savannah, or Vancouver. Maintain open communication with your logistics provider to react quickly if talks break down.

Glovoyce Market Outlook

May’s signals paint a more nuanced picture than the previous months:

• Rates are on a downward trend for Asia‑Europe, but capacity management could create pockets of tightness.

• Compliance is tightening on both sides of the Atlantic: ICS2 in Europe, and possibly more audits in the US.

• Policy in China now actively supports compliant e‑commerce exports – a win for sellers who formalize their operations.

• Labor risk in US West Coast is real again, demanding diversification.

Three actions for shippers in May:

1. Stay agile on procurement – keep 50–60% spot exposure on Asia‑Europe until Red Sea clarity emerges.

2. Upgrade EU data capabilities – ICS2 is unforgiving; invest in data accuracy now.

3. Diversify US gateways – do not rely solely on Los Angeles/Long Beach.